We are proud to share our latest research, which has uncovered several key insights that provide a new perspective on the current state and future trajectory of the market.

Isaiah provides a comprehensive analysis of the iPhone production forecast for 2025 and 2026. While overall 2026 shipments are expected to remain flat or show slight growth compared to the 248 to 249 million units in 2025, the first half of 2026 will experience significant year-over-year production increases of 18 percent in the first quarter and 20 percent in the second quarter. This surge is primarily driven by strategic early pull-ins of the iPhone 17 Pro, alongside a minor baseline correction for the new iPhone Air model. We also explore upstream supply chain dynamics and future market drivers.

AI servers are driving HBM demand, triggering an unprecedented resource crowding-out effect in the memory industry. Major manufacturers are highly concentrating their capital and capacity on HBM, leading to a severe supply gap of 20 to 25 percent in traditional DRAM and NAND. As these giants shift their capital expenditures and launch fierce expansion and packaging layouts across the US, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan, the high-ASP (Average Selling Price) environment is expected to persist into 2026 to 2027. Mastering these geopolitical expansion dynamics is core to navigating the semiconductor super cycle and hedging risks.

Reflecting on 2025, the global foldable smartphone market stagnated, with estimated shipments hovering between 14 million and 16 million units (YoY ~1%). However, 2026 will mark a major watershed moment. With Apple’s official entry into the fray, global foldable shipments are projected to jump to **19 million to 21 million units**, representing a massive annual growth rate of **35% to 37%**. Data models indicate that if Apple’s estimated contribution of 6 million to 7 million units is excluded, the Android camp may face a decline of 8% to 9%. This implies that 2026’s growth momentum will be driven entirely by Apple, forcing a drastic strategic restructuring across the Android ecosystem.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of United Microelectronics Corporation's (UMC) production capacity, supply-demand dynamics, and application structure for the year 2026. Moving beyond traditional consumer electronic cycles, the analysis highlights a structural recovery driven by a diversified application portfolio and the geopolitical "NCNT" (Non-China/Taiwan) supply chain restructuring. Key insights reveal that the 22/28nm node will serve as the profit core, maintaining tight supply (85-90% utilization) through a balanced mix of DDI, TWS, and ISP demand. The newly introduced 12/14nm process is characterized as a pilot line dedicated to communication RF applications. Meanwhile, mature processes (40nm-90nm) and 8-inch fabs are undergoing structural shifts; while MCUs remain significant, a strategic influx of PMIC and DDI orders—stemming from competitor capacity adjustments—is reshaping the landscape. The report concludes with actionable recommendations for supply chain partners, emphasizing the importance of monitoring RF test interface demand and the timing of 8-inch order transfer effects.
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Should Chinese chip designers win orders, they could still struggle for production capacity given constraints U.S. curbs put on foundries such as TSMC (2330.TW) from working with Chinese firms, said Isaiah Research Vice President Lucy Chen.

The waiver is “good news” for TSMC, as it allows the company to continue with expansion plans for its 28-nanometer chips in Nanjing, China, says Lucy Chen, vice president of Isaiah Research, a Taiwan-based tech-research firm.

Apple added five new mainland Chinese suppliers while removing eight in mainland China in its latest financial year ended September 2022, after China’s strict Covid-19 controls disrupted iPhone production last holiday season, according to the latest supplier list published by the US consumer electronics giant.

Foxconn may lose some iPhone 15 work to other Chinese manufacturers after it failed to deliver iPhone 14s last November due to Covid disruptions. New arrangement marks the first time Apple has tapped three suppliers to produce premium iPhones, highlighting efforts to smooth the supply chain
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